Now, we are not sure where the prediction comes from or how they envision this to happen but a lot of things will need to happen for this to take palace. The first thing is that Microsoft will have to prove that Windows Phone is a viable product. With 5.2% of the market and an almost single vertical space in the market this is unlikely. Since Microsoft decided to prop up Nokia and for their push with Windows Phone and leave many other companies out there is likely to be a shift in the number of phones available to consumers. It is also interesting to note that while the phone has enjoyed many positive reviews most of the consumers we talked to find the new interface too garish and unfamiliar to deal with.

Microsoft should remember their inability to get the ZuneHD in the hands of consumers as a competitor to the iPod despite it being a smoother UI and a much better media player. Now they are trying to push live tiles and harsh colors onto a market that is looking for something familiar. It is not what people are looking for or want really. Nokia’s phones are also not exactly the speediest out with many applications not able to run on them due to a lack of CPU power inside. Things will change and Microsoft is trying very hard to make the Metro UI the familiar interface (yes that is one of the reasons to push this with Windows 8 and Windows RT), but we doubt that this will be the case inside the 3.5 years left to Microsoft.

IDC researchers claim that Windows Phone will be strong in emerging markets with Nokia backing that particular horse. However at $200 it is still more expensive than many Android phones that can be had for nothing with a subscription from many carriers. They also claim that the backing of AT&T and Verizon will help to push Windows phone into the limelight. However both of these are flawed in their basic logic as is one of the final conclusions; “What’s iOS doing? They’re going to bring you an older iPhone for less expensive. Which one would you rather have: This year’s model or last year’s model”. As we have seen even used iPhone 3gs and iPhone 4s continue to sell online and in pawnshops. This means that people are still interested in the iPhone even if it is an older model. So selling last year’s model for less than Windows Phone will have an effect on emerging markets. The same can be said for Android as last year’s phones drop in price. It is usually right after the launch of a new phone that companies see spikes in sales of older models for people that do not want to pay top dollar.

The IDC report also seems to think that the leap to a 19% market share will be with Windows Mobile and Windows Phone 7… This could be nothing more than a typo, but we think that many people might not buy or keep a Windows Phone if they find out that their phone will not be able to access new applications in the Windows Store. This seems to be the current case with the move to Windows 8 so why the market share for this Mobile OS would increase we do not know.

On the other hand we do see Apple gaining market share with iOS over the next four years while we would expect to see Android slowdown, but it is far from its peak. Again we do not know where IDC is getting its figures from, but even if they include Windows RT in the numbers (which we doubt they did) there is little chance that Windows Phone will jump up to pass Apple in the next 3 years. Windows Phone will enjoy an increase in market share but we just do not envision 19.2% by 2102.

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