As most people know Google’s Android is the leading mobile phone OS in the world. It represents between 52 and 55% of the global market while Apple still holds the lion’s share of the mobile app revenue. Apple in the meantime typically runs at around 25-32% (again depending on what report you read). What most analysts are hoping for is that Windows Phone 8 will eat into Google’s hold on the market which will allow for Apple to pull ahead of Google.

What is being missed in this equation is that even if (and that is a big if) Microsoft’s WindowsPhone can increase their market share, it is much more likely to be at the expense of Blackberry (formerly known as RIM) and Apple. I know of a few companies that are looking to swap out their iPhones for Windows Phones. One of the reasons that this is attractive is that in a Microsoft environment a Windows Phone can be subjected to policies that are pushed out by Microsoft Exchange (and Active Directory Group Policy). This makes them attractive to some enterprise customers that want better control over their phones without the need to employ third-party solutions that cost money to own and maintain.

We are not sure why so many analysts feel that Apple would be immune to an increase in Windows Phone market share, but it has caused some rather interesting articles to be pushed out today. In the end there is only 100% of the market to cut up and with Android at over 50% right now and Apple at 30% that leaves a lot of ground for Microsoft to gobble up while not touching Apple’s bit of the pie. This analysis is flawed on multiple levels and not just about who an increase in Microsoft market share would affect. It assumes that Android will not improve their OS and bring other features to the market and that no one else will jump in to take away from Apple. It also assumes that Apple will be able to pull out of their current downward trend by leapfrogging Android and Windows Phone to bring better features to the market. To put it bluntly this just not going to happen in the next three years and we doubt it will happen even in the next five…